Screening for Substance Use Disorders as a Supplement to Caseworker Assessment Among Foster Care–Involved Families

Parental substance abuse is a major factor in families experiencing foster care placement, yet little is known about the potential of screening in determining risk or identifying subpopulations for which elevated risk occurs. One Midwestern state recently implemented screening. This research uses information gathered as part of the screen's implementation to conduct a latent class analysis. The research was extended to provide a detailed examination of differences in child and family characteristics across classes, and to compare the screen results with caseworker impressions. Three distinct typologies emerged, with the high-risk and moderate-risk designations comprising only one quarter of the cases.     

Re‐evaluating the relationship between electoral rules and ideological congruence

Two new studies challenge the prevailing consensus that proportional representation (PR) systems produce greater ideological congruence between governments and their citizens than majoritarian ones. This has led to what has become known as the ‘ideological congruence controversy’. G. Bingham Powell claims to resolve this controversy in favour of PR systems. Specifically, he argues that the results from the two new studies are based on an anomalous decade and that PR systems generally do produce greater government congruence. In addition, he also asserts that PR systems exhibit less variability in government congruence. In this article, the empirical evidence for these two claims is re‐evaluated using exactly the same data as employed by Powell. The analysis indicates that although PR systems produce better and more consistent representation in the legislature, they do not hold an advantage when it comes to representation at the governmental level.     

State Visits and Leader Survival

Why do political leaders travel abroad? In this article, we propose an informational mechanism linking in‐person diplomacy to leader survival. A foreign power visits an incumbent in order to reap a future policy concession; the visit is only worth the effort if the incumbent remains in power long enough to deliver on the deal. A diplomatic visit thus provides a visible and credible signal of the visitor's high confidence in the incumbent's stability in office. Domestic opponents, facing incomplete information as to the incumbent's strength, observe the signal and are deterred from mounting a challenge. Using data on U.S. diplomatic visits from 1960 to 2013, we find strong empirical support for our predictions: A visit with the U.S. president substantially reduces the risk of a leader's removal from office.     

Reliability reporting across studies using the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory

Empirical research on anger and hostility has pervaded the academic literature for more than 50 years. Accurate measurement of anger/hostility and subsequent interpretation of results requires that the instruments yield strong psychometric properties. For consistent measurement, reliability estimates must be calculated with each administration, because changes in sample characteristics may alter the scale's ability to generate reliable scores. Therefore, the present study was designed to address reliability reporting practices for a widely used anger assessment, the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). Of the 250 published articles reviewed, 11.2% calculated and presented reliability estimates for the data at hand, 6.8% cited estimates from a previous study, and 77.1% made no mention of score reliability. Mean alpha estimates of scores for BDHI subscales generally fell below acceptable standards. Additionally, no detectable pattern was found between reporting practices and publication year or journal prestige. Areas for future research are also discussed.     

The Gottfredson-Hirschi critiques revisited: reconciling self-control theory, criminal careers, and career criminals

Revisiting Gottfredson and Hirschi's critiques of criminal career research, the current study views low self-control as being analogous to criminal propensity and examines its predictive validity of career criminality among 723 incarcerated delinquent youths. Four key findings emerged. Compared to noncareer offenders, career criminals had significantly lower levels of self-control. Second, youths scoring one standard deviation above the mean on the Self-Control Scale had an odds ratio of 5.36 of becoming a career criminal. Third, self-control predicted career criminal membership with receiver operator characteristic-area under the curve sensitivity accuracies between 74% and 87%, suggesting that self-control is a potentially useful screening device for chronic criminality. Fourth, low self-control was overwhelmingly the strongest predictor of career criminality and far exceeded the impact of age, race, ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic status, mental illness, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis, and trauma experience. Further integration between self-control and criminal career research is urged.     

Scaling archetypal criminals

The current study introduces an exploratory postdiction scale whose elements are derived from Moffitt’s (2001) developmental taxonomy, specifically her idea of the life-course persistent offender. Using data obtained from a probability sample of 500 adult arrestees in the western United States, this 7-item additive scale postdicts such criminal behavior as violent and property Index arrests, felony convictions, and prison sentences with overall accuracy ranging from 85% to 92%. Unlike other efforts, this scale suggests that most criminals are benign, low-level offenders, a finding anticipated by Moffitt’s theory. Like prior criminological scales, the current measure has difficulty correctly identifying highrate offenders. The merits of using theory to influence scale construction are expressed and suggestions for refining this instrument are offered.     

Individual neighborhood attachment and perceptions of neighborhood safety

Macrostructural research in the social disorganization tradition assumes neighborhood structure dictates individual behavior. The current research explores the opposite perspective to determine whether individual attachment to the neighborhood influences perceptions of neighborhood safety. Using the Chicago Metropolitan Area Survey, the results show that loners, persons wishing to move, and renters perceive their neighborhoods as being less safe than attached residents. Implications for future research are offered. Data for this study were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.     

The Neglected Power of Elite Opinion Leadership to Produce Antipathy Toward the News Media: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Today, most Americans dislike the news media as an institution. This has led to considerable debate about why people dislike the media and how their public standing could be improved. This paper contributes to this literature by using a survey experiment to test the effect of several different considerations on evaluations of the media. It finds, consistent with the broader literature on political persuasion, that elite partisan opinion leadership can powerfully shape these attitudes. Additionally, it finds that tabloid coverage creates antipathy toward the press regardless of predispositions and that horserace coverage has a negative effect on opinions among politically aware citizens on both sides of the political spectrum. Contrary to some claims in the literature, this study finds no detectable effect of news negativity.     

“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions

Political Behavior - We examine the effect of biographical knowledge on voters’ assessments of leaders. Prior research has shown that voters infer traits from candidate characteristics such...